Why Most Free Tips Lose Money
The internet is full of free horse racing tips. Newspapers have racing columnists. Social media has tipster accounts. YouTube channels offer daily selections. Almost all of them lose money for anyone who follows them blindly over time. Understanding why is the first step to using tips properly.
The core problem: tips are published at prices that are often unavailable by the time a punter tries to bet. A tipster who records their selections at "best available early morning price" may show a profit that is impossible to replicate if you are placing bets at starting price (SP). The price you get matters as much as picking winners. A horse tipped at 10/1 that you back at 7/1 is a structurally different bet even if the horse wins.
Second problem: free tips are often generated for traffic, not profit. A newspaper's racing tips page exists to attract readers who want gambling content. The tipster is not accountable for long-term results — there is no financial consequence for providing consistently poor value selections. Paid tipsters have more incentive to maintain a genuine record, though the subscription model introduces its own conflicts.
Third: survivorship bias. The tipsters you hear about are the ones with a memorable winning run. The many more who have lost over the same period are simply not mentioned. Any tipster with a 100-bet sample will have produced a winner at some point that looks impressive in isolation.
How to Assess a Tipster's Record
A genuine tipster record meets several basic tests. First, it should cover at least 100 bets — a smaller sample can show wild swings of profit and loss that are essentially random. Second, bets should be recorded before the race starts, at a clearly stated price (SP, or the morning price from a named bookmaker). Third, losing bets must be listed alongside winners. Any record that only highlights winning runs is useless as a guide to future performance.
The key metrics to look for in a tipster record:
- Strike rate: The percentage of winning bets. A 20% strike rate on horses at 5/1 average is roughly break-even at SP. Any higher profit means beating the market.
- Return on investment (ROI): Total profit as a percentage of total staked. Positive ROI over 100+ bets at SP is rare and worth noting. 10%+ ROI over 500+ bets is genuinely exceptional.
- Average odds: A tipster with a 30% strike rate at average odds of 2/1 is structurally losing. The same strike rate at 4/1 average is profitable. Strike rate and odds must be evaluated together.
- Drawdown: The longest losing run in the record. Even profitable tipsters have losing runs of 20-30 bets. If you would abandon the tipster after 10 consecutive losses, check whether that happened in the recorded history and what the subsequent recovery looked like.
Using Tips Alongside Your Own Research
The most sustainable approach to horse racing tips is treating them as one input into your own decision, not a substitute for it. A tip from a trusted source that aligns with your own reading of the form is more valuable than following a tip blindly. When a tip contradicts your own analysis, that is worth investigating rather than ignoring.
Practical workflow: before reading tips for the day, review the card yourself. Note the races that interest you and your initial thoughts on each. Then compare with tips. Where there is agreement, that convergence adds confidence. Where there is disagreement, dig into the reasons. The tipster may have information or analysis you have not considered; equally, your own reading may have identified something the tipster missed.
Use form reading skills to verify the rationale behind a tip. A good tipster should be able to explain why they are backing a selection. "X trainer is in great form and this horse looks well-handicapped off its current mark after two runs back from a layoff" is a verifiable rationale. "Connections are confident" is not.
The NAP and What It Means
A NAP is a tipster's most confident selection of the day. The word comes from the card game Napoleon, where calling "nap" means committing to winning all five tricks. In racing tips, a NAP signals the tipster's best bet from the full programme — the selection they would stake most on if forced to choose one.
A tipster's NAP record is the most concentrated measure of their ability. If the daily NAP shows positive ROI over 200+ selections, that is a meaningful signal. If the NAP loses as often as the other tips, it suggests the confidence label is cosmetic rather than genuinely differentiating their selections by quality of conviction.
Some publications and websites compile NAP tables each day, showing which horse has received the most NAP selections from multiple tipsters. When a large number of independent tipsters converge on the same selection, the market tends to be aware — expect the price to shorten. The value in multi-tipster NAP convergence is usually found earlier in the day before the word spreads.
Keep records of your own betting alongside any tips you follow: date, race, selection, odds, stake, result. After 50-100 bets you will have a genuine picture of whether the tips (and your own selections) are generating value or costing money. See our NAP tips guide for more. Responsible gambling support: Gambling Awareness Trust, 1800 753 753, gamblingcare.ie.
Frequently Asked Questions
NAP is a tipster's most confident selection of the day — their best bet. The term comes from the card game Napoleon. A good tipster will have one NAP per day, treating it as their standout selection from the full card. A NAP that consistently wins at value odds is a sign of genuine tipster quality.
Look for a verified record of at least 100 bets, all recorded before the race starts. Check the starting price used in the profit/loss calculation. A genuine record shows bets placed at SP or best-available odds, with losing bets listed honestly alongside winners. Independently audited records are more reliable than self-reported ones.
Following multiple tipsters multiplies your stake requirements and makes it harder to track profit/loss clearly. It is better to follow one tipster whose methodology you understand, with a clearly defined staking plan, than to combine several tipsters and lose track of which is performing.