Prediction Markets Blocked in Ireland — Polymarket & Kalshi 2026

Both Polymarket and Kalshi have blocked Irish users following intervention by the Gambling Regulatory Authority of Ireland (GRAI). If you try to access either platform from Ireland, you will find your access is restricted.

This happened because the GRAI considers prediction markets — platforms where you bet money on the outcomes of real-world events — to be a form of betting that requires a licence under the Gambling Regulation Act 2024. Neither Polymarket nor Kalshi holds a GRAI licence.

Why Are Prediction Markets Treated as Betting in Ireland?

Prediction markets allow users to buy and sell shares in the outcome of events — elections, sports results, economic data, awards shows. When real money changes hands based on the outcome of an event, the GRAI classifies this as betting.

The GRAI stated: "Prediction market operators who wish to offer betting services to consumers in Ireland must obtain the appropriate licence under the Gambling Regulation Act 2024 before providing services to consumers in Ireland. Unlicensed operators should take appropriate steps to prevent consumers in Ireland from accessing their platforms. Otherwise, they may face enforcement action."

🌍 Wider context: Ireland is part of a broader EU-level discussion about whether prediction markets require gambling licences. The GRAI's position — that they do — is consistent with regulators in several other European jurisdictions.

Timeline — When Were Prediction Markets Blocked?

  • Early 2026: Kalshi and Polymarket geo-blocked Ireland ahead of the GRAI licensing deadline
  • 1 July 2026: GRAI remote betting licences took effect; operating without one became a regulatory violation
  • September 2026: GRAI confirmed that two major prediction markets had geo-blocked Ireland following regulator engagement

What About Existing Funds on Polymarket or Kalshi?

The GRAI confirmed it is working with operators that have geo-blocked Ireland to ensure Irish customers receive refunds for deposited funds. If you had funds on either platform:

  • Log in and request a withdrawal through your account
  • Contact customer support for Polymarket or Kalshi directly
  • If you face difficulties, contact the GRAI at grai.ie

Alternatives to Prediction Markets for Irish Users

Many of the event categories covered by prediction markets — politics, sports, entertainment — are available as betting markets on GRAI-licensed bookmakers. These are fully regulated under Irish law and offer consumer protections that unlicensed platforms cannot match.

GRAI-licensed operators offer markets on:

  • Political elections (Irish, UK, US, European)
  • Sports outcomes (match winners, outright winners, specials)
  • Entertainment awards (Oscars, BAFTAs, Eurovision)
  • Financial specials (some operators)
View GRAI-Licensed Betting Sites →

📋 See also: Full guide to GRAI licensed bookmakers in Ireland →

📋 See also: Risks of using unlicensed betting sites in Ireland →

18+ only. If gambling is affecting you, contact the Gambling Awareness Trust on 1800 753 753 or visit gamblingcare.ie.

Prediction Markets and Irish Law

Platform typeLegal status in Ireland
Traditional bookmaker (GRAI-licensed)Fully legal
Prediction markets (Polymarket, Kalshi)Legal grey area — often geo-blocked
Crypto-based prediction marketsUnregulated in Ireland — no consumer protection
  • US-based prediction markets (Kalshi, PredictIt) typically geo-block non-US users
  • The GRA 2024 does not specifically address prediction markets
  • Prediction market rules for Ireland may be clarified in 2027+
  • 18+ | Gambling Awareness Trust | 1800 753 753 | gamblingcare.ie