What Are Long Odds?
Long odds describe selections priced at substantially above even money — typically 10/1 (11.0) or higher. In betting terminology, a long shot is any selection where the implied probability of winning is low: at 20/1, the market implies roughly a 4.5% chance of winning (after removing the bookmaker margin). Long odds attract bettors because the potential returns are large relative to the stake, but the probability of winning is correspondingly small.
Why Long Shots Win Less Than You Think
Bookmakers price long odds with generous margins. At short prices (evens, 2/1), the margin is typically 5–8%. At long prices (20/1 or above), the margin is often 15–25% or more. This means the fair odds for a 20/1 shot might be 25/1 — the bookmaker is extracting more from each long-odds bet than from each short-odds bet. Research in betting markets consistently shows that long shots are systematically overpriced from the bettor’s perspective: they win less often than even their (already-low) market probability implies.
When Long Odds Can Have Value
Value at long odds exists when you have information or analysis suggesting the actual probability of an outcome is higher than the market implies. This is rare and requires a genuine informational or analytical edge. Examples might include a horse trained specifically for a particular course who has shown outstanding work at home but limited exposed form, or a team in an early-round cup competition with strong home record being priced generously by a bookmaker focused on higher-profile matches.
Managing Stakes on High-Price Bets
Long odds bets should represent a smaller percentage of your betting bank than even-money or short-priced bets. Because the win probability is low, you will lose many consecutive long-odds bets before a winner, which requires the bankroll to absorb the drawdown. Level-staking (same stake per bet) on long shots means wins are infrequent but large; proportional staking (same percentage of bank) reduces stake as the bank falls after losing runs. 18+ — Gambling Awareness Trust: 1800 753 753, gamblingcare.ie.
Frequently Asked Questions
Long Odds: Risk vs Reward by Price Range
| Price range | Example | €10 returns | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10/1–16/1 (11.00–17.00) | 10/1 Premier League outsider | €110 | 8.3%–5.9% |
| 20/1–33/1 (21.00–34.00) | 20/1 cup winner | €210 | 4.8%–2.9% |
| 50/1–100/1 (51.00–101.00) | 50/1 outright winner | €510 | 2.0%–1.0% |
| 150/1–250/1 | Horse racing outsider | €1,500–€2,500 | 0.7%–0.4% |
| 500/1+ | Extreme longshot | €5,000+ | <0.2% |
Long odds selections require proportionally fewer winners to show long-term profit — but only if the actual win rate exceeds the implied probability. A 20/1 shot needs to win more than once every 21 bets to be profitable in the long run.
Where Long Odds Value Is Most Commonly Found
- Outright markets (long ante-post): Bookmakers overprice the favourites and underprice outsiders in many outright markets, particularly in team sports where upsets are possible.
- Horse racing each-way: An each-way bet at 20/1 pays the win portion AND the place portion — a 1/4 odds place return. Finding a 20/1 shot that places 30%+ of the time is profitable even with few wins.
- Accumulators involving longshots: Adding one or two 10/1+ selections to a mix significantly boosts acca potential, but variance is extreme.
- Avoid: Exact scoreline betting, correct score at high odds in football, and exact corners/cards at high odds — the implied probabilities are almost always unfavourable.
There is no fixed definition, but most bettors consider 10/1 (11.0) or higher to be long odds. At these prices the market implies less than a 10% chance of winning, before the bookmaker margin.
Not necessarily. Research suggests that at the extremes, both very short-priced favourites and very long shots tend to offer worse value than mid-range prices in most markets.
Including a single genuine long shot with strong analysis can boost an accumulator’s potential return significantly. Including multiple untested long shots simply for the return figure reduces expected value.
18+ only. Gambling can be addictive. Play responsibly. Gambling Awareness Trust — 1800 753 753 — gamblingcare.ie. GRAI licence: GRAI-0191-RB-26-0001.